Gulisi (603808): Baiqiu Dating Investment to Realize Investment Returns + Spin-off Listing Promotion

Gulisi (603808): Baiqiu Dating Investment to Realize Investment Returns + Spin-off Listing Promotion

Event overview: On December 15, 2019, the company announced that the board of directors passed the resolution: (1) for the purpose of incentives, the founding shareholders and their concerted parties agreed to 16.

279 million subscription of Baiqiu Network’s new registered capital, which translates into 14% equity, the exercise condition is a compound growth of 30% in the next 3 years;
.

500 million yuan to subscribe for new registered capital, corresponding to 12.

50% equity.

(3) Investors in the round shall be 3.

44.3 billion yuan to buy the shares held by Glix, which translates to 28.

69% equity.

Analysis and judgment We analyze that the significance of this transaction lies in: (1) Glix gains investment income.

2.4 billion, expected to increase profits in 2020: At present, the proportion of Gelishi holdings in Baiqiu is 75%, and it will be reduced to 27 after the issuance.

75%. In September 2016, the company purchased 75% of Baiqiu for 277.50 million yuan, corresponding to an estimated 3.

700 million.

At present, the corresponding value-added capital of round A investors is estimated to be 1.2 billion, and the company is expected to realize investment income.

2.4 billion.

(2) Baiqiu team received incentives: The founding shareholders and their concerted parties will become the actual controllers of Baiqiu Network, holding 31 shares.

06%.

(3) Dating Sequoia Capital is conducive to accelerating the pace of Baiqiu’s separate listing.

Baiqiu is one of the six-star e-commerce generation operation service providers. There are currently more than 50 generation operation brands. This year, 10 new brands have been signed to target mid-to-high-end brands in categories including apparel, luxury goods, jewelry, footwear and other big fashions.Category.

In the first three quarters of 2019, Baiqiu achieved revenue2.

2 trillion, net profit is about 0.

US $ 4.1 billion, we expect to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% this year, GMV is expected to double to US $ 6 billion, and it is expected to maintain GMV growth of more than 80% in 2020.

In the short term, we judge that the company is expected to be better next year than this year: (2) EH brand resumes growth after destocking; (3) IRO acquires the remaining equity consolidation and accelerates store opening; (4) Baiqiu Network relies on the e-commerce platformResources + IT capabilities + overall online and offline solutions + competitive advantages of overseas layout, GMV is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

In the medium term, we will pay attention to the increase in Baiqiu’s estimates after the launch of OneNet.com. In the long term, we will focus on the brand’s store space and the improvement of store efficiency. We judge that 杭州桑拿网 the main brand will have more than 500 stores in the future and EH will be more than 250., More than 200 other international brands.

Considering that EH is still destocking in the second half of the year, the recovery is beyond expectations, and for the time being, we will not consider the Baiqiu distribution to contribute the next profit, and change the 19/20 / 21EPS from 1.

21/1.

39/1.

63 yuan down to 1.

2/1.

37/1.

62 yuan, down by 0.

8% / 1.

4% / 0.

6%, maintain “overweight” rating.

Risks prompt increased competition in the generation operation industry; high inventory risks; and systemic risks.