China Pacific Insurance’s performance last year: Net profit increased by 54%. Value change of new life insurance business

China Pacific Insurance’s performance last year: Net profit increased by 54%. Value change of new life insurance business
Sauna Night News (Reporter Pan Yichun) On March 22nd, listed insurance company China Pacific Insurance released its 2019 annual report.Last year, the Group achieved insurance business revenue of 347.5 billion yuan, an annual increase of 8%, and a net profit growth of 54% per year to 27.7 billion yuan.It is reported that China Pacific Insurance mainly deals in life insurance, property insurance and other businesses. If calculated according to the original premium income, in 2019, China Life Insurance and China Life Insurance will be China’s third largest life insurance company and third largest property insurance company respectively.The decline in the value of new life insurance business Taibao Group’s first profit was driven by the renewal business. Last year, the income of CPIC’s life insurance business still increased by 5% to US $ 212.5 billion. However, due to the negative growth of the new insurance business, the value of its new business dropped by 9.3% was 24.6 billion yuan.That being the case, the average monthly manpower of the agent team of CPIC Life Insurance declined last year, but it fell by 6.The 7% reached 790,000, and the monthly income of the agent ‘s first-year insurance business also fell by 9% to 4,212 yuan.From the perspective of premium income structure, CPIC Life Insurance’s long-term health insurance business has a rapid growth rate of 33%, tax extended pension insurance, short-term accident and health insurance business income also exceeded the growth rate of 102.7% and 21.4%.However, due to the change in product form, the dividend insurance business revenue dropped by 5 each year.5%.It is worth noting that China Taibao’s professional health insurance company, Taibaolian, last year achieved its first profit in five years since opening, and gradually realized insurance business and health management fee income47.1.7 billion, an increase of 71 per year.9%, net profit reached 0.07 billion.The growth rate of non-auto insurance revenue exceeded Sancheng Agricultural Insurance’s profit growth. In the past year, CPIC P & C achieved insurance business revenue of US $ 133 billion, an increase of 12 year-on-year.9%.The auto insurance business is still the main source of income for CPIC’s property and casualty insurance business, reaching US $ 93.2 billion, only growing 6% annually, but the growth rate of non-auto insurance income has been impressive, reaching 33.3%, of which, guarantee insurance and agricultural insurance business revenue increased by 60% and 40% respectively.8%.China Pacific Insurance stated in its annual report that the guarantee insurance business focuses on personal and margin replacement business, achieving rapid development and comprehensive cost conversion 95.5%, business quality is good.Overall, the comprehensive cost of CPIC ‘s property insurance last year was 98.3%, a slight decrease of 0 in a year.1 digit, of which the comprehensive payout rate is 60.2%, 4 budgets are added every year, and the comprehensive expense ratio is 38.1%, down by 4 every year.1 average.However, the net profit of the agricultural insurance company Anxin Agricultural Insurance, which belongs to the Pacific Insurance Group, has dropped by 24 last year.1%, the annual report stated that the overall cost rate of the insurer increased by 5 due to typhoon “Lichma” and the swine fever epidemic in Africa.6 perfect to 99.8%.Increase the total investment rate of equity investment to 5.In terms of 4% investment, last year, the total investment return rate of China Pacific Insurance reached 5.4%, rising by 0 every year.With 8 samples, the net investment return rate reaches 4.9%, flat for a year.China Pacific Insurance stated that last year, the company increased the allocation of equity assets, and strengthened the construction of tactical asset allocation process to seize market opportunities.At the same time, allocate long-term government bonds and high-grade credit bonds, and increase the allocation of high-quality non-public market financing instruments while comprehensively considering liquidity security.”Considering the credit risk that the fixed income market still faces challenges, the company still maintains a cautious attitude towards credit risk.”Specifically speaking, last year, China Pacific Insurance reduced its bond investment ratio, which was 3% lower than the end of last year.7 digits reached 42.6%.National debt, local government debt, and policy financial debt accounted for 37% of bond investment.9%, an increase of 3 from the end of last year.6 averages.The proportion of equity assets invested increased compared with the end of last year.2 copies, of which stocks and equity funds account for 8.3%, an increase of 2 from the end of last year.7 averages.Sauna, Ye Wang Pan Yichun Edited by Yue Caizhou Proofreading Li Ming

[Do you eat snowdrop fruit to lose weight at night]_ weight loss _ how effective

[Do you eat snowdrop fruit to lose weight at night]_ weight loss _ how effective

Snowdrop fruit is a kind of fragrant, delicious and delicious food. In addition, the nutrition value of snowdrop fruit is relatively high, and it has a really good promotion effect on human health.

And because of its low adult content and low conversion, snowdrops can help the body lose weight, so it has become the best choice for many people who lose weight.

Below, I will introduce the relevant knowledge of snowdrops in detail for everyone.

First, can I lose weight by eating snowdrops?
Snowdrop fruit has the effect of weight loss, because it can promote resonance peristalsis, in terms of regulating the stomach and intestines, it has a significant effect, and also has the effect of reducing blood sugar, blood lipids and blood pressure.

And it contains almost no traces, and there are substances that promote decomposition, while reducing traces, it can supplement the starch in the body, and it will produce a feeling of fullness, so there is no need to eat other foods.

After eating this food, there are still beauty effects.

Second, snowdrop fruit weight loss method Snowdrop fruit has the effect of weight loss, you can cook, eat soup, drink, of course, you can also drink tea after drying.

If you want to lose weight, try to eat snowdrops after meals, which can help you to move manually and also eliminate the slight buildup inside the body.

Snowdrops are eaten at night, which can help lose weight without gaining weight, which solves the problem of dinner.

If you want to lose weight, it should be combined with physical exercise. It promotes a slight burn while exercising, and it is a very healthy way to lose weight.

Third, the efficacy and role of snowdrop fruit 1, conditioning blood, can reduce blood sugar, blood lipids and high blood pressure, can prevent and treat high blood pressure, diabetes, cardio-cerebral vascular disease and obesity also have a certain effect.

2. Help digestion, condition and improve the bad condition of the digestive system.

Due to the metabolic disorders of snow lotus fruit, the plasma fiber and all of the plants with high fructooligosaccharides can significantly promote gastrointestinal motility, moisturize the bowel, and eliminate constipation and overcome complications. It is the nemesis of gastrointestinal diseases.

The magical thing is that it is a multiplication factor for intestinal diarrhea bacteria, which overcomes the systemic diseases caused by imbalance of intestinal beneficial bacteria such as diarrhea bacteria due to the tension of life and excessive use of antibiotics, and can eliminate food diseases caused by imbalance.Bringing environmental pollutants into the human body is a gastrointestinal scavenger and protector.

3. It can resist oxidation and eliminate free radicals, which can reduce or avoid the occurrence of lithiasis.

4. The snowdrop fruit is not only delicious, but also has many effects. It has the functions of clearing liver and detoxifying, lowering fire and lowering blood pressure. It is an effective prevention and treatment of facial acne and acne.

The snowdrop fruit contains more than 20 kinds of hydroxy acids and calcium, iron, potassium, selenium and other minerals and trace elements that are necessary for the human body. Regular consumption can improve the human body’s immunity;Viagra.

[Baby appetizer and food supplement]_ children _ how to do

[Baby appetizer and food supplement]_ children _ how to do

We all know that when the baby is young, because the digestive system of the stomach is not particularly mature, so many times the baby needs to eat some appetizing foods. These foods must not only have nutritional value, but also be suitable for the baby.When choosing foods for babies, the treasure moms are also carefully selected. The following editors will introduce in detail the appetizing complementary foods suitable for babies.

The best summer supplement for summer must be light and digestible.

Appetizer + nutrition + light = standard for summer baby food supplement.

Today, Mengma shared a small fresh summer recipe for moms with Xiaobao at home: Tomato Tremella and Millet Porridge Ingredients: Tomato, Tremella, Millet, Water Starch; Method: 1. Soak the millet in water for about half an hour;2. Soak the white fungus in warm water and cut it into small pieces after removing the yellow part. 3. After washing the tomatoes, cut the cross into the boiling water, remove the skin and seeds, and cut into small pieces. 4. Put the white fungus inAfter boiling the water in the small soup pot, turn to low heat and simmer; 5. Add the millet and the tomato and simmer together. After the millet is thickened, pour the water starch and simmer.

Mother’s Pregnancy: This porridge has a fresh and sweet taste, which can promote baby’s digestion.

Lycopene vitamins, white fungus nourishes yin and nourishes the lungs, has the effect of clearing heat and detoxifying.

Bitter gourd steamed meat ingredients: bitter gourd, pork, eggs in the right amount; practices: 1, first clean the pork and cut into pieces, use a vegetable stick to make pork paste (the size of the pork paste is determined according to the baby’s chewing ability);Scatter into egg liquid and stir into pork puree; 3, cut the bitter gourd into sections, pick up the water and add cold water to remove the salty taste; 4, put the bitter gourd in a plate, and use a small spoon to take an appropriate amount of pork putPut in bitter gourd and steam for about 15 minutes.

Mom suffers from classics: Although bitter gourd has a special bitter taste, it has high nutritional value and is rich in B vitamins, vitamin C, calcium, potassium and other nutrients.

Traditional Chinese medicine believes that bitter gourd has the effects of clearing heat, clearing eyesight, and detoxifying. It is a vegetable commonly used in summer to remove heat.

Two types of complementary foods are suitable for babies over 1 year old. Regarding the problem of not putting seasonings, mothers should know that babies over 1 year old can basically add appropriate amount of seasonings to improve the taste of baby’s complementary foods, but it is still recommendedIf you can’t let it go, it’s light.

If you want your baby’s complementary food to be more delicious, you can choose natural and healthy seasoning ingredients.

For example, the second bitter gourd steamed meat, some mothers will think that the baby does not like to eat bitter gourd.

In fact, it is advisable to eat some bitter foods in summer, which is beneficial to relieve heat and relieve heat, and moderate consumption can also regulate the spleen and stomach.

[Can plums and dates be eaten together?

】 _Jujube_with food

[Can plums and dates be eaten together?
】 _Jujube_with food

Plum is a very common fruit in people’s daily life. It is very popular because of its sweet taste and rich vitamins.

Dates are also a kind of food that people like very much, especially for women.

There is a saying that plums and dates cannot be eaten together. This is a very trap. So let’s introduce in detail the following: can plums and dates be eaten together?

Yes, no effect.

Eating jujube more often has adverse effects on malnutrition, palpitation, insomnia, anemia, dizziness, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, cardiovascular disease, chronic liver disease, allergic diseases, immune dysfunction, cancer and tumor patients with minor suppression due to chemotherapy and radiationBoth are good.

Traditional Chinese medicine often uses date as a medicinal primer or supplement. It is especially suitable for the elderly, children and women during menopause. The spleen and stomach are weak or the mind is irregular.

Plum acid can promote the secretion of gastric acid and gastric digestive enzymes, and can promote gastrointestinal motility, thereby improving appetite and promoting digestion, especially effective for those who lack gastric acid, swell after eating, and have constipation.

Serine, glycine, proline, glutamine and other amino acids in fresh plum meat have a diuretic and swelling effect, and have an adjuvant treatment effect on liver cirrhosis.

Plums should not be eaten with those foods: 1. Plums cannot be eaten with bitter almonds. Plums contain a small amount of amygdalin, and after metabolism, a form of hydrocyanic acid with a small amount of toxicity will not occur.Bitter almonds also contain this ingredient, which together will cause excessive amygdalin, which may cause poisoning, and mild cases will also damage the liver.

2. Plums should not be eaten with high-calcium foods. In addition to containing a large amount of fruit acid, the content of oxalic acid is not low. If you eat high-calcium foods while eating plums, calcium supplementation will reduce calcium absorption and willGenerates large amounts of insoluble calcium oxalate, increasing the risk of urinary stones.

Common high calcium foods are: calcium tablets, animal bones, soft shell foods such as shrimp and crab.

3. Plums should not be eaten with sour foods. Plums contain a lot of fruit acids. After eating, metabolism causes a certain stimulating effect. If you eat other sour foods, increasing the absorption of acid substances will increase the stimulation of metabolism.Causes gastric hyperacidity, and severe dialysis can cause acute and chronic ulcers, hemodialysis and other symptoms.

Common sour foods: oranges, bayberry, green plum and other fruits.

4. Plums should not be eaten with high-protein foods because they are cold. After eating, they will reduce digestion and digestion. High-protein foods need a good gastrointestinal function. Absorption of plums while eating high-protein foods will cause protein digestion.Bad, abdominal distension, belching and other adverse symptoms.

Common high protein foods: eggs, milk, soy products, animal meat, etc.

5. Plums cannot be eaten with honey. Honey contains a large number of active enzymes. Plums contain amygdalin and a small amount of oil. Consuming them together will accelerate the catabolism of these ingredients, increase the amount of hydrogen in the body, and increase its toxicity. It is not recommendedThese two foods are consumed together.

[Can you eat mint in early pregnancy_Can pregnant women drink mint water]

[Can you eat mint in early pregnancy_Can pregnant women drink mint water]

Most pregnant women pay great attention to their bodies in the early stages of pregnancy and in the third trimester of pregnancy, because the baby’s fetal image is not very stable in the early stages of pregnancy, and if there is an accident, it may easily lead to miscarriage.

In the early stages of pregnancy, diet is also very careful, because pregnant women do not pay attention to their diet will cause the baby in the stomach to develop healthily.

And can women in early pregnancy eat mint?

Can pregnant women eat peppermint, because peppermint is rich in menthol, which can help people to promote fresh air, and also has some medicinal properties.

It can relieve abdominal pain, gallbladder problems, and help people stomach and digestion. Large amounts of peppermint may lead to insomnia, but small doses can help people to sleep.

However, we still do not recommend that pregnant women use peppermint. The nutritional content of mint will affect the absorption of the digestive tract, and will harm the function of the heart, which will have some adverse effects on pregnant women and pregnant women.

Peppermint also has a strong pungent odor, which is also harmful to the nervousness of pregnant women.

This pungent scent of mint will add to the nerves of pregnant women’s friends, causing pregnant women’s friends to overstimulate.

Mint aroma substances will be absorbed through the skin and will enter the body through the placenta, which will affect the growth and development. Although it is said to be fresh, but mint-like things, everyone should contact as little as possible.

Whether it’s mint-flavored sugar or mint itself, everyone should avoid it.

Don’t add mint while making soup.

Mint is actually a cold food. If people eat too much, they may even have a miscarriage.

We always think that now we should know that female friends must not drink mint water during pregnancy, because the nutritional content of mint will affect people’s digestion and absorption ability, and it will also seriously affect the taste stimulus of female friends.Substances can also affect your baby’s development.

So for the time being, please bear with me for a while and don’t eat mint.

[Can men eat angelica]_Recommended diet

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Gulisi (603808): Baiqiu Dating Investment to Realize Investment Returns + Spin-off Listing Promotion

Gulisi (603808): Baiqiu Dating Investment to Realize Investment Returns + Spin-off Listing Promotion

Event overview: On December 15, 2019, the company announced that the board of directors passed the resolution: (1) for the purpose of incentives, the founding shareholders and their concerted parties agreed to 16.

279 million subscription of Baiqiu Network’s new registered capital, which translates into 14% equity, the exercise condition is a compound growth of 30% in the next 3 years;
.

500 million yuan to subscribe for new registered capital, corresponding to 12.

50% equity.

(3) Investors in the round shall be 3.

44.3 billion yuan to buy the shares held by Glix, which translates to 28.

69% equity.

Analysis and judgment We analyze that the significance of this transaction lies in: (1) Glix gains investment income.

2.4 billion, expected to increase profits in 2020: At present, the proportion of Gelishi holdings in Baiqiu is 75%, and it will be reduced to 27 after the issuance.

75%. In September 2016, the company purchased 75% of Baiqiu for 277.50 million yuan, corresponding to an estimated 3.

700 million.

At present, the corresponding value-added capital of round A investors is estimated to be 1.2 billion, and the company is expected to realize investment income.

2.4 billion.

(2) Baiqiu team received incentives: The founding shareholders and their concerted parties will become the actual controllers of Baiqiu Network, holding 31 shares.

06%.

(3) Dating Sequoia Capital is conducive to accelerating the pace of Baiqiu’s separate listing.

Baiqiu is one of the six-star e-commerce generation operation service providers. There are currently more than 50 generation operation brands. This year, 10 new brands have been signed to target mid-to-high-end brands in categories including apparel, luxury goods, jewelry, footwear and other big fashions.Category.

In the first three quarters of 2019, Baiqiu achieved revenue2.

2 trillion, net profit is about 0.

US $ 4.1 billion, we expect to achieve revenue growth of more than 30% this year, GMV is expected to double to US $ 6 billion, and it is expected to maintain GMV growth of more than 80% in 2020.

In the short term, we judge that the company is expected to be better next year than this year: (2) EH brand resumes growth after destocking; (3) IRO acquires the remaining equity consolidation and accelerates store opening; (4) Baiqiu Network relies on the e-commerce platformResources + IT capabilities + overall online and offline solutions + competitive advantages of overseas layout, GMV is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

In the medium term, we will pay attention to the increase in Baiqiu’s estimates after the launch of OneNet.com. In the long term, we will focus on the brand’s store space and the improvement of store efficiency. We judge that 杭州桑拿网 the main brand will have more than 500 stores in the future and EH will be more than 250., More than 200 other international brands.

Considering that EH is still destocking in the second half of the year, the recovery is beyond expectations, and for the time being, we will not consider the Baiqiu distribution to contribute the next profit, and change the 19/20 / 21EPS from 1.

21/1.

39/1.

63 yuan down to 1.

2/1.

37/1.

62 yuan, down by 0.

8% / 1.

4% / 0.

6%, maintain “overweight” rating.

Risks prompt increased competition in the generation operation industry; high inventory risks; and systemic risks.

Huatian Technology (002185): Continue to be optimistic about semiconductor localization and global cycle recovery and outperform the industry

Huatian Technology (002185): Continue to be optimistic about semiconductor localization and global cycle recovery and outperform the industry

Company status We recently visited Huatian Technology leaders and continue to be optimistic about 1) the localization of semiconductors 2) the return of the global semiconductor industry to the upward cycle will drive the company’s performance in 2020.

We raise the company’s target price to 8.

20 yuan, maintain “outperform industry” rating.

Commenting on Tianshui, Xi’an base ‘s production capacity is maximized at full load. Duration of progress: According to our field survey, benefiting from strong domestic demand for replacement. At present, Huatian Tianshui ‘s Xi’an production base ‘s production capacity continues to increase in the third quarter. Among them, the production capacity of communications products has become tight.Happening.

The company said that the timely expansion of production in the second quarter of this year has effectively met the orders caused by structural changes in some domestic alternatives, and it is still optimistic about the two base demand forecast in the first half of next year.

Optimistic about Kunshan base to reverse losses next year: Through continuous penetration of multi-camera smartphones, ToF has begun to appear on high-order models. We believe that demand for CIS related to smartphones will continue to be strong; in addition, the increase in the market size of automotive lenses and security cameras will also increaseDrive demand for CIS chips.

After experiencing a long-term price drop due to previous supply-demand imbalances, our recent industry chain findings show that the cost of packaging and testing processing for CIS chips has increased by the beginning of 2019.

Huatian Kunshan currently has a CIS package capacity of over 20,000 wafers (equivalent to 8-inch wafers), and we believe the company will help to benefit from the aforementioned industry trends.

In addition, in addition to maximizing the capacity of bumping and gradually increasing, we believe that Huatian Kunshan is expected to achieve operating profitability in 2020.

Unisem’s business situation gradually emerged from the bottom: affected by overseas RF, poor demand for automotive electronics customers, and staff severance fees at Batam Customs Plant in Indonesia, Unisem’s overall performance this year was poor.

However, we believe that as the demand side of the semiconductor industry gradually emerges from the bottom, and the disposal of the Indonesian factory next year will bring a one-time gain, Unisem’s 上海夜网论坛 contribution to the consolidated statement profit will increase significantly.

It is recommended to take into account the expected maximum level of production capacity in the fourth quarter, and we raise the company’s 2019 profit forecast by 3% to 2.

800 million.

In addition, considering the increase of CIS capacity in 2020, the commissioning of the Nanjing plant has a slight drag on profit margins. We raise the company’s 2020 revenue by 3% to 9.9 billion US dollars, and maintain the 2020 net profit forecast unchanged.

The company’s current consensus corresponds to 2.

3×2020 P / B, in order to reflect the 2020 packaging and testing industry to recover the high prosperity in the semiconductor localization and global industry demand recovery, we raised our target price by 26% to 8.

20 yuan, corresponding to 2.

7x2020E P / B (located at the upper center level in the past three years) has 21% growth space.

Risk The recovery of the demand side of the semiconductor industry is not up to expectations; the progress of semiconductor localization is not up to expectations.

Li Xunlei: Relatively speaking, how many people have gone abroad to restore real domestic demand

Li Xunlei: Relatively speaking, how many people have gone abroad to restore real domestic demand

Li Xunlei column | How many people did go abroad before-restore the real domestic demand Li Xunlei WeChat account number: Zhongtai Securities Fund Management Co.
, Ltd. can be reproduced with authorization by Mr. Li Xunlei (WeChat public number: lixunlei0722).

The author is the chief economist of Zhongtai Securities.

  According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the annual tourism deficit in 2018 hit a record high, reaching US $ 237.4 billion, an increase of US $ 21.4 billion over the previous year.

The tourism deficit hit a record high, reflecting the growing scale of domestic residents ‘overseas travel consumption. Does this mean that domestic demand is booming and has it triggered a climax in overseas travel consumption?

  By analyzing the relevant reports and data provided by the tourism industry authority, the National Bureau of Statistics and international professional organizations, I think that a large amount of data in the domestic tourism industry is suspicious, and it is easy to mislead investment methods, and it is necessary to store authenticity and counterfeit.

  The number of people who have traveled abroad is estimated to be 100 million. According to the preliminary statistics of the China Tourism Academy, in 2018 the number of Chinese outbound tourists reached 1.

400 million person-times, up from 2017.

There were 11 million more 2.9 billion person-times, but the data from the China Academy of Tourism in 2017 was significantly lower than the one published by the National Bureau of Statistics in the “2017 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of the People’s Republic of China”.

35.8 billion personal departures.

In any case, the number of outbound tourists from developing countries has steadily increased, indicating that consumption is still upgrading rather than degrading.

  However, going abroad does not mean going abroad. Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan all belong to Chinese territory. Therefore, we must distinguish 1.

Of the 400 million person-times, how many are going abroad and how many are going to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.

According to the “China Outbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2018” issued by Chinese tourism scholars, the proportion of outbound tourism in 2017 continued to increase, accounting for about 33 of the total outbound tourism.

3%, assuming that this proportion remains unchanged in 2018, the number of overseas travel in 2018 is about 46.67 million.

  But it must be noted that the number of people does not equal the number of people, and the number of people must be greater than the number of people.

Assuming that half of the number of people going abroad in 2018 went on average twice, the number of people going abroad may be only over 31 million.

  The increasing number of domestic residents in countries where the budget has traveled abroad. Another way is to look at the number of valid passports held by domestic residents. Since no corrective data for passports held by domestic residents was found online, only November 2016 was found.Huang Ming, vice minister of the Ministry of Public Security, reported to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress that the number of valid ordinary passports held for private purposes reached 1.

200 million copies.

  It is assumed that the number of valid passports in the country will reach 1 by the end of 2018.

400 million copies, this does not mean that people who have gone abroad will reach 1.

4 billion, just like people who have a driver’s license may not buy a car and drive themselves.

My judgment is that the proportion of residents who have traveled abroad in developing countries to the effective private passport population of all people generally does not exceed 80%, that is, slightly more than 1 billion people.

  Some people may have questions: In the past, I have had passports and traveled abroad, and now I have to count the passports that have not been processed in time.

It should be included in the statistics, but suffers from the lack of data, but I believe that this proportion of people is very small-after all, the sooner you go abroad, the richer the person will be, and the more active the passport renewal will be.

  In addition, the increase in the number of people going abroad should be highly related to the level of income and income of residents. Research by the China Tourism Academy also shows that the degree of matching of dominance income with the number of people going abroad is highly correlated.

Step 52.

4% of outbound residents are concentrated in the Bohai Rim metropolitan area centered on Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area centered on Shanghai, the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area centered on Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration in the southwest (see ChinaOutbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2018 “).

  In 2017, the disposable income of the high-income group, who accounted for 20% of the national population, was 64,934 yuan, but from “2017 China’s outbound tourism market reached 1.

2.9 billion person-times and outbound tourism costs 1152.

900 million US dollars (see “China’s Outbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2018”), it seems that the per capita outbound tourism expenditure accounts for 10% of the per capita annual disposable income of the high-income group.

  Generally speaking, at present, a large number of people (over 30 million) in outbound travel are discontinuous, but outbound travel generally needs to be changed, so outbound travel costs more than outbound travel.

Therefore, even for the residents of most high-income groups, overseas travel is still a “luxury tourism”, and the disposable income level of those who can afford such luxury tourism is at least the average level of the high-income group, that is, an annual average of 120,000Yuan and above.

  According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of high-income groups is insufficient.

800 million, of whom the average annual disposable income exceeds 12 million, should be less than 1 billion.

In other words, the number of people who can afford the current average cost of going abroad is theoretically not more than 100 million.

  In general, through the ratio between departure and departure, the number of visits and the number of people, the effective analysis of factors such as the number of private passports and the level of income of the residents, resulting in the proportion of the population going abroad to the total population must be less than10%, possibly in the range of 5% -7%.

  The increase in the number of tourists going abroad will show a downward trend. More authoritative institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of domestic travel abroad, but the growth rate of private outbound travel in 2017 was only 5.

7%, about 22% in 2010 and 10 in 2015.6% and 5 in 2016.

6%, basically showing a gradual downward trend, reflecting the decline in the growth rate of local residents’ disposable income.

  The growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2018 continued to decline, which reflects the decline in the growth rate of disposable income of residents, of which the per capita consumption of education, culture and entertainment (including entertainment consumption in the tourism industry) increased by only 6.

7%, lower than the per capita consumption expenditure8.

4%, of which per capita health care consumption expenditure growth rate was 16.

1%, indicating that the population is aging, and the consumption structure of residents is changing at the same time.

  Although I do not agree with the “consumption degradation” statement, because the Engel coefficient, which reflects the proportion of food, tobacco and alcohol in household consumption expenditure, replaced 28 in 2018.

4%, but the decline in consumption growth and the increase in households’ leverage on house purchases have hindered the growth of consumption upgrades.

  From the destination of local residents’ outbound tours, the top 15 destinations for Chinese tourists in 2017 were Hong Kong, China, Macau, Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, the United States, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Russia and Australia.

It is not difficult to find that the travel destinations of tourism destinations are basically concentrated in East Asia. To put it plainly, the transportation costs in tourism expenditures are relatively high.

  But why does China’s per capita income rank among the top 70 in the world, but can the per capita consumption expenditure of outbound tourism rank first in the world?

  In my opinion, the outbound travel of residents in developing countries is mainly spent on shopping, but the leisure and entertainment expenses are not much.

So why spend so much money on shopping?

  The reason is very simple. The domestic tariffs on branded goods are relatively high. This also reflects from one aspect that the actual travel expenses of outbound tourism of local residents are not high. The purpose of shopping is to avoid high tariffs.

  I had predicted that out of more than 100 million outbound trips in 2014, more than 30 million of them were one-day trips to Hong Kong, Macao and other places, commonly known as “milk powder 武汉夜生活网 party”. In the strict sense, this is not a tourist expenditure, otherwise,It is difficult to explain why the level of per capita income is far from the cumulative level, but why the per capita expenditure of outbound travel is ahead of existing tourists.

  Another worrying issue is that it is still difficult to respond to the widening income gap between residents of all levels, which will also affect the growth of consumption and even the tourism industry.

  According to Bain & Company, the sales volume of luxury goods in the Chinese mainland market will reach 23 billion euros in 2018, an increase of 18% in current increments, which is twice the growth rate of domestic retail sales of consumer goods in 2018.

This is the case. The marginal consumption trend and the high-end consumption growth rate of the crowd are relatively opposite to the growth rate of the basic consumer consumption of the complex crowd, which is not 四川耍耍网 good for expanding domestic demand.

  Tourism’s contribution to stimulating domestic demand is overestimated On January 18, the National Bureau of Statistics issued an announcement-“In 2017, the national added value of tourism and related industries accounted for 4 of GDP.

53% “, why did you not release the 2017 tourism data until the beginning of 2019?

It may be that the verification of the tourism industry data needs additional time, as it has been the case throughout the years.

  Sources of data on national tourism and related industry value-added in 2017: National Bureau of Statistics, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, but the National Bureau of Statistics announced the proportion of national added value of tourism and related industries to GDP.

53%, and the “2017 Tourism Industry Statistical Bulletin” released by the China Tourism Research Institute shows that “the comprehensive contribution of the national tourism industry to GDP for the ten years is 9”.

13 trillion, accounting for 11 of total GDP.

“04%” is quite different. So whose data is more credible?

  The China Tourism Research Institute is actually the National Tourism Administration’s data center. It used to be a subordinate unit of the National Tourism Administration. Now the National Tourism Administration has merged with the Ministry of Culture, and the institution has been identified as a “central scientific research institution” by the Ministry of Science and Technology.

  However, the Tourism Research Institute also pointed out in the report that the annual tourism revenue in 2017 was 4.

57 trillion, tourism revenue is only “the comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP is 9.

13 trillion “half, how can this be explained?

And tourism revenue accounted for only 5 of the GDP of the previous year.
.

5%, not to mention that “income” must be lower than “GDP-added value”.

  The statistical communique did not define and explain “comprehensive contribution”, but only said that “tourism directly employed 28.25 million people, tourism directly and indirectly employed 79.9 million people, accounting for 10 of the total employment of the country.

28%.

The implication is that the comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP includes two parts, one is the contribution of 28.25 million tourism employees, and the other is the contribution of 51.65 million indirect employees.

  So how much does this contribute directly and indirectly?

It was hardly convincing because it was not specified in the communiqué.

It cannot be considered that the employed population directly or indirectly engaged in tourism accounts for 10% of the total employed population in the country.

28%, the proportion of tourism value added in GDP should also correspond to it.

  Because the tourism industry’s income data and outbound travel data are difficult to conduct full-sample statistics, sampling is usually conducted through sampling surveys. Moreover, national data are usually obtained by reporting and collecting in various places. There is also the possibility of deviation.
In particular, it is necessary to prevent local governments from using tourism development and tourism revenue as political achievements and tourism advertisements when the development of tourism is the main driving force of economic transformation.
  In my opinion, the gap between the data released by the China Tourism Research Institute and the National Bureau of Statistics is too large, which may be related to the excessive establishment and acceptance criteria of the former National Tourism Administration to promote the “Global Tourism Demonstration Zone” across the country.The third item, “The comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national economic and social development,” requires “the added value of tourism to the comprehensive contribution of more than 15% of GDP”, “the contribution of tourism to local employment and new employment (the number of tourism employeesThe combined contribution of the total number of people is over 20%) “.
With such a high proportion, how many local governments can achieve tourism through large-scale investment?
  The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics is relatively neutral and objective, because tourism and transportation passenger flow, commercial retail, catering and other data have a correlation or inexorable relationship.
The National Bureau of Statistics on the contribution of tourism to GDP is also divided into two parts, one is the direct output of the tourism industry, and the other is the indirect output (Tourism-related industries refer to the provision of tourism auxiliary services for government travel and government tourism management services, etc.A collection of activities), of which the value-added of tourism-related industries accounted for only 7.
8%, that is to say, the so-called 51.65 million indirect employees of the tourism industry referred to by the China Tourism Academy actually contribute little to GDP.
  However, judging from the total added value and itemized data of the tourism industry published by the National Bureau of Statistics, it seems that there is also a large gap with the national and overall itemized data. For example, the total added value of the tourism industry in 2017 was 3.
72 trillion, accounting for the total tourism revenue of 2017 announced by the China Tourism Academy 4.
57 trillion 81.
4%, of course, income can be converted into GDP-added value, but the conversion rate is so high that it is amazing.
  From the breakdown of data, the value added of tourism travel (transport) increased by 15.
3%, but in 2017, China ‘s road passenger traffic as the main body of traffic passengers experienced negative growth, resulting in the first negative growth in total passenger traffic including roads, railways, water transportation, and aviation.
For example, the 2017 Spring Festival holiday, the national passenger shipments 4.
0.8 billion person-times, only an increase of 2.
1%. For the first time during the 2018 Spring Festival, the number of passenger shipments across the country showed a negative growth.
The Spring Festival holiday in 2019 has come, everyone can wait and see, after all, the data of the transportation department is more credible.
  According to The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017 released by the World Economic Forum, the global tourism industry revenue now accounts for 10% of global GDP, but China ‘s domestic tourism industry revenue accounts for only 5% of GDP.5%, indicating that China ‘s tourism industry is not as developed as compared to the size of the Chinese economy, which may be related to the low level of Chinese residents ‘income. For example, China ‘s per capita national income (GNI) ranked 69th in the world in 2017.During the same period, the United States was China’s 6.
5 times.
  The 2017 Tourism Competitiveness Report has a total of 387 pages. In the discussion of China’s tourism industry, it is pointed out that China’s tourism industry employs 22.49 million people, accounting for the total number of Chinese employees 2.
9%, the added value created is 224 billion US dollars, and the proportion of GDP is 2.
1%, less than half of the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
  注:上图旅游业增加值(T&T industry GDP)中国$224B,为2240亿美元缩写  中国旅游业增加值虽然不足美国的一半,但已经在全球排名第二了;与中国形成鲜明对照的是,U.S. tourism added value as a percentage of GDP is only 2.
7%, only 0 higher than China
According to the structure of the three industries, the U.S. service industry accounts for 80%, while China has only 52%. From the perspective of per capita national income of residents, the United States is China’s 6.
5 times.
  Therefore, regardless of per capita income or industrial structure, the proportion of China’s added value of tourism to GDP is unlikely to exceed that of the United States. Therefore, the 2017 value-added data of tourism released by the National Bureau of Statistics, even if it includes tourism relatedIndustry value-added data (only 7.
8%), still suspected of overestimation.
  At the same time, the World Economic Forum’s Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017 shows that the five countries with the highest dependence on tourism in the world: Malta, Croatia, Thailand, Jamaica, and Iceland.No more than 15.
1%, the lowest is 8.
2%.
  Even if Hong Kong, China ‘s largest overseas tourist destination, has long been the first destination for outbound travel, the added value of its tourism industry accounts for only 8% of GDP.
Therefore, the China Tourism Research Institute announced that “the added value of tourism accounts for 11.
04% “, which belongs to” countries and regions that are highly dependent on tourism “, but the tourism industry income is only half of the global average, indicating that its credibility is not high.
  To sum up, it is undoubtedly the right choice to expand domestic demand, increase green GDP, and promote economic transformation through the development of tourism. In recent years, governments around the world have indeed worked hard to build distinctive towns, tap and develop local history and culture.And tourism resources to promote the growth of local tourism income, but the development of tourism is closely related to the growth of residents ‘disposable income. With the increase of residents’ income level, the development of tourism will naturally increase.
However, in the context of the decline in residents’ income growth, it is not realistic to achieve rapid growth in tourism income.
  Furthermore, nowadays, all regions are rushing to develop tourism resources, which may also cause a “supply oversupply” of the tourism industry, leading to a decline in fiscal expenditure performance and waste of resources.
Because it is difficult to count the number of tourists and income, it is bound to appear false tourism performance of “high growth” and “outstanding performance” in the tourism industry.
  In short, it is the last word to find ways to increase the level of income and social security and welfare of residents, and it is the prerequisite for all prosperity to be sustained.
  This material does not constitute investment advice, and you do so at your own risk.This material is only read by specific qualified investors who have the corresponding risk identification and tolerance ability. It should not be considered as an offer, nor can it be copied, forwarded or other proliferation activities to unspecified objects.

Luolai Life (002293): The performance is in line with expected preparations, and online and scheduled adjustments will affect cash flow

Luolai Life (002293): The performance is in line with expected preparations, and online and scheduled adjustments will affect cash flow
2018 results are in line with expectations The results of 2018 announced by Rollei Life: Revenue 48.13 ppm, a 10-year increase3.2%; net profit 5.35 ppm, a 24 year increase.9%, corresponding to a relative net profit of 0.71 yuan.Performance is in line with expectations.In the fourth quarter of 2018, single-quarter revenue fell by 8%, and net profit increased by 33.7%.The company also announced 1Q19 results: revenue decreased by 2.3%, net profit margin 7.6%, mainly due to the high government base last year. In terms of business lines, (1) in terms 南宁桑拿 of offline business, the overall retail sales increased by multiple high single digits and same-store sales increased by low single digits.As of the end of December 2018, the number of offline stores of each brand was about 2,700, and about 30 stores were gradually opened (about 50 stores closed in the second half of the year), and 70% of newly opened stores were located in third- and fourth-tier cities.(2) The revenue contribution of the e-commerce business in 2018 was about 20%, which is an improvement from the contribution of nearly 30% every half a year in the first half of the year, as the segmentation of online brands has an impact on LOVO e-commerce revenue.(3) Lexington achieved US revenue in 20188.100 million US dollars, an annual increase of 2.2%, with a profit of 53.86 million yuan.Lexington and LOVO cover the high-end and mass markets, respectively, and complement the Rollei brand positioned as a mid-to-high-end brand. Financial Review: Gross margin rose slightly by 0 in the short term.2ppt to 44.7%.The sales management expense ratio rose by 0.6ppt to 32.8%.Financial expenses have fallen 98% annually to 660,000 yuan.Asset impairment losses increased by 21% annually to 77.76 million yuan.Cash flow from initial operating activities decreased by at least 73%, mainly due to the reserve of raw materials. The reorganization of LOVO’s online business and the adjustment of the conference system led to an increase in inventory turnover days by 48 days; however, cash turnover has improved significantly in 1Q19. Development Trends (1) The company plans to increase its revenue by 5-15% and its net profit by 10-20% in 2019.(2) Starting from 2H18, the company will actively promote the management transition of franchisees, which will be more compatible with terminal retail.(3) Lexington will continue to expand its channels in the form of direct stores in 2019.(4) In the future, the company will shrink its business line and focus on home textiles. Earnings Forecast According to the company’s latest guidance, we raised our 2019 earnings forecast9.2% to 0.80 yuan, raised 2020 forecast4.6% to 0.86 yuan, corresponding to an annual increase of 12.3%, 7.6%. It is estimated and recommended that the company can currently sustain 14/13 times P / E of 2019/20, maintain a neutral rating, and raise the target price by 18% to 11 with the adjustment of profit forecast.94 yuan, corresponding to 15 times P / E in 2019, implying 6.1% space.The company’s home textile business is leading in scale, but the LOVO brand and its export business that are positioned in the mass market accordingly face higher uncertainty. The risk inventory is high in risk; the risk of improper M & A integration.