Li Xunlei: Relatively speaking, how many people have gone abroad to restore real domestic demand
Li Xunlei column | How many people did go abroad before-restore the real domestic demand Li Xunlei WeChat account number: Zhongtai Securities Fund Management Co.
, Ltd. can be reproduced with authorization by Mr. Li Xunlei (WeChat public number: lixunlei0722).
The author is the chief economist of Zhongtai Securities.
According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the annual tourism deficit in 2018 hit a record high, reaching US $ 237.4 billion, an increase of US $ 21.4 billion over the previous year.
The tourism deficit hit a record high, reflecting the growing scale of domestic residents ‘overseas travel consumption. Does this mean that domestic demand is booming and has it triggered a climax in overseas travel consumption?
By analyzing the relevant reports and data provided by the tourism industry authority, the National Bureau of Statistics and international professional organizations, I think that a large amount of data in the domestic tourism industry is suspicious, and it is easy to mislead investment methods, and it is necessary to store authenticity and counterfeit.
The number of people who have traveled abroad is estimated to be 100 million. According to the preliminary statistics of the China Tourism Academy, in 2018 the number of Chinese outbound tourists reached 1.
400 million person-times, up from 2017.
There were 11 million more 2.9 billion person-times, but the data from the China Academy of Tourism in 2017 was significantly lower than the one published by the National Bureau of Statistics in the “2017 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin of the People’s Republic of China”.
35.8 billion personal departures.
In any case, the number of outbound tourists from developing countries has steadily increased, indicating that consumption is still upgrading rather than degrading.
However, going abroad does not mean going abroad. Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan all belong to Chinese territory. Therefore, we must distinguish 1.
Of the 400 million person-times, how many are going abroad and how many are going to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
According to the “China Outbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2018” issued by Chinese tourism scholars, the proportion of outbound tourism in 2017 continued to increase, accounting for about 33 of the total outbound tourism.
3%, assuming that this proportion remains unchanged in 2018, the number of overseas travel in 2018 is about 46.67 million.
But it must be noted that the number of people does not equal the number of people, and the number of people must be greater than the number of people.
Assuming that half of the number of people going abroad in 2018 went on average twice, the number of people going abroad may be only over 31 million.
The increasing number of domestic residents in countries where the budget has traveled abroad. Another way is to look at the number of valid passports held by domestic residents. Since no corrective data for passports held by domestic residents was found online, only November 2016 was found.Huang Ming, vice minister of the Ministry of Public Security, reported to the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress that the number of valid ordinary passports held for private purposes reached 1.
200 million copies.
It is assumed that the number of valid passports in the country will reach 1 by the end of 2018.
400 million copies, this does not mean that people who have gone abroad will reach 1.
4 billion, just like people who have a driver’s license may not buy a car and drive themselves.
My judgment is that the proportion of residents who have traveled abroad in developing countries to the effective private passport population of all people generally does not exceed 80%, that is, slightly more than 1 billion people.
Some people may have questions: In the past, I have had passports and traveled abroad, and now I have to count the passports that have not been processed in time.
It should be included in the statistics, but suffers from the lack of data, but I believe that this proportion of people is very small-after all, the sooner you go abroad, the richer the person will be, and the more active the passport renewal will be.
In addition, the increase in the number of people going abroad should be highly related to the level of income and income of residents. Research by the China Tourism Academy also shows that the degree of matching of dominance income with the number of people going abroad is highly correlated.
4% of outbound residents are concentrated in the Bohai Rim metropolitan area centered on Beijing, the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area centered on Shanghai, the Pearl River Delta metropolitan area centered on Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration in the southwest (see ChinaOutbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2018 “).
In 2017, the disposable income of the high-income group, who accounted for 20% of the national population, was 64,934 yuan, but from “2017 China’s outbound tourism market reached 1.
2.9 billion person-times and outbound tourism costs 1152.
900 million US dollars (see “China’s Outbound Tourism Development Annual Report 2018”), it seems that the per capita outbound tourism expenditure accounts for 10% of the per capita annual disposable income of the high-income group.
Generally speaking, at present, a large number of people (over 30 million) in outbound travel are discontinuous, but outbound travel generally needs to be changed, so outbound travel costs more than outbound travel.
Therefore, even for the residents of most high-income groups, overseas travel is still a “luxury tourism”, and the disposable income level of those who can afford such luxury tourism is at least the average level of the high-income group, that is, an annual average of 120,000Yuan and above.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total number of high-income groups is insufficient.
800 million, of whom the average annual disposable income exceeds 12 million, should be less than 1 billion.
In other words, the number of people who can afford the current average cost of going abroad is theoretically not more than 100 million.
In general, through the ratio between departure and departure, the number of visits and the number of people, the effective analysis of factors such as the number of private passports and the level of income of the residents, resulting in the proportion of the population going abroad to the total population must be less than10%, possibly in the range of 5% -7%.
The increase in the number of tourists going abroad will show a downward trend. More authoritative institutions are optimistic about the development prospects of domestic travel abroad, but the growth rate of private outbound travel in 2017 was only 5.
7%, about 22% in 2010 and 10 in 2015.6% and 5 in 2016.
6%, basically showing a gradual downward trend, reflecting the decline in the growth rate of local residents’ disposable income.
The growth rate of the total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2018 continued to decline, which reflects the decline in the growth rate of disposable income of residents, of which the per capita consumption of education, culture and entertainment (including entertainment consumption in the tourism industry) increased by only 6.
7%, lower than the per capita consumption expenditure8.
4%, of which per capita health care consumption expenditure growth rate was 16.
1%, indicating that the population is aging, and the consumption structure of residents is changing at the same time.
Although I do not agree with the “consumption degradation” statement, because the Engel coefficient, which reflects the proportion of food, tobacco and alcohol in household consumption expenditure, replaced 28 in 2018.
4%, but the decline in consumption growth and the increase in households’ leverage on house purchases have hindered the growth of consumption upgrades.
From the destination of local residents’ outbound tours, the top 15 destinations for Chinese tourists in 2017 were Hong Kong, China, Macau, Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, the United States, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, India, Russia and Australia.
It is not difficult to find that the travel destinations of tourism destinations are basically concentrated in East Asia. To put it plainly, the transportation costs in tourism expenditures are relatively high.
But why does China’s per capita income rank among the top 70 in the world, but can the per capita consumption expenditure of outbound tourism rank first in the world?
In my opinion, the outbound travel of residents in developing countries is mainly spent on shopping, but the leisure and entertainment expenses are not much.
So why spend so much money on shopping?
The reason is very simple. The domestic tariffs on branded goods are relatively high. This also reflects from one aspect that the actual travel expenses of outbound tourism of local residents are not high. The purpose of shopping is to avoid high tariffs.
I had predicted that out of more than 100 million outbound trips in 2014, more than 30 million of them were one-day trips to Hong Kong, Macao and other places, commonly known as “milk powder 武汉夜生活网 party”. In the strict sense, this is not a tourist expenditure, otherwise,It is difficult to explain why the level of per capita income is far from the cumulative level, but why the per capita expenditure of outbound travel is ahead of existing tourists.
Another worrying issue is that it is still difficult to respond to the widening income gap between residents of all levels, which will also affect the growth of consumption and even the tourism industry.
According to Bain & Company, the sales volume of luxury goods in the Chinese mainland market will reach 23 billion euros in 2018, an increase of 18% in current increments, which is twice the growth rate of domestic retail sales of consumer goods in 2018.
This is the case. The marginal consumption trend and the high-end consumption growth rate of the crowd are relatively opposite to the growth rate of the basic consumer consumption of the complex crowd, which is not 四川耍耍网 good for expanding domestic demand.
Tourism’s contribution to stimulating domestic demand is overestimated On January 18, the National Bureau of Statistics issued an announcement-“In 2017, the national added value of tourism and related industries accounted for 4 of GDP.
53% “, why did you not release the 2017 tourism data until the beginning of 2019?
It may be that the verification of the tourism industry data needs additional time, as it has been the case throughout the years.
Sources of data on national tourism and related industry value-added in 2017: National Bureau of Statistics, China-Thailand Securities Research Institute, but the National Bureau of Statistics announced the proportion of national added value of tourism and related industries to GDP.
53%, and the “2017 Tourism Industry Statistical Bulletin” released by the China Tourism Research Institute shows that “the comprehensive contribution of the national tourism industry to GDP for the ten years is 9”.
13 trillion, accounting for 11 of total GDP.
“04%” is quite different. So whose data is more credible?
The China Tourism Research Institute is actually the National Tourism Administration’s data center. It used to be a subordinate unit of the National Tourism Administration. Now the National Tourism Administration has merged with the Ministry of Culture, and the institution has been identified as a “central scientific research institution” by the Ministry of Science and Technology.
However, the Tourism Research Institute also pointed out in the report that the annual tourism revenue in 2017 was 4.
57 trillion, tourism revenue is only “the comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP is 9.
13 trillion “half, how can this be explained?
And tourism revenue accounted for only 5 of the GDP of the previous year.
5%, not to mention that “income” must be lower than “GDP-added value”.
The statistical communique did not define and explain “comprehensive contribution”, but only said that “tourism directly employed 28.25 million people, tourism directly and indirectly employed 79.9 million people, accounting for 10 of the total employment of the country.
The implication is that the comprehensive contribution of tourism to GDP includes two parts, one is the contribution of 28.25 million tourism employees, and the other is the contribution of 51.65 million indirect employees.
So how much does this contribute directly and indirectly?
It was hardly convincing because it was not specified in the communiqué.
It cannot be considered that the employed population directly or indirectly engaged in tourism accounts for 10% of the total employed population in the country.
28%, the proportion of tourism value added in GDP should also correspond to it.
Because the tourism industry’s income data and outbound travel data are difficult to conduct full-sample statistics, sampling is usually conducted through sampling surveys. Moreover, national data are usually obtained by reporting and collecting in various places. There is also the possibility of deviation.
In particular, it is necessary to prevent local governments from using tourism development and tourism revenue as political achievements and tourism advertisements when the development of tourism is the main driving force of economic transformation.
In my opinion, the gap between the data released by the China Tourism Research Institute and the National Bureau of Statistics is too large, which may be related to the excessive establishment and acceptance criteria of the former National Tourism Administration to promote the “Global Tourism Demonstration Zone” across the country.The third item, “The comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national economic and social development,” requires “the added value of tourism to the comprehensive contribution of more than 15% of GDP”, “the contribution of tourism to local employment and new employment (the number of tourism employeesThe combined contribution of the total number of people is over 20%) “.
With such a high proportion, how many local governments can achieve tourism through large-scale investment?
The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics is relatively neutral and objective, because tourism and transportation passenger flow, commercial retail, catering and other data have a correlation or inexorable relationship.
The National Bureau of Statistics on the contribution of tourism to GDP is also divided into two parts, one is the direct output of the tourism industry, and the other is the indirect output (Tourism-related industries refer to the provision of tourism auxiliary services for government travel and government tourism management services, etc.A collection of activities), of which the value-added of tourism-related industries accounted for only 7.
8%, that is to say, the so-called 51.65 million indirect employees of the tourism industry referred to by the China Tourism Academy actually contribute little to GDP.
However, judging from the total added value and itemized data of the tourism industry published by the National Bureau of Statistics, it seems that there is also a large gap with the national and overall itemized data. For example, the total added value of the tourism industry in 2017 was 3.
72 trillion, accounting for the total tourism revenue of 2017 announced by the China Tourism Academy 4.
57 trillion 81.
4%, of course, income can be converted into GDP-added value, but the conversion rate is so high that it is amazing.
From the breakdown of data, the value added of tourism travel (transport) increased by 15.
3%, but in 2017, China ‘s road passenger traffic as the main body of traffic passengers experienced negative growth, resulting in the first negative growth in total passenger traffic including roads, railways, water transportation, and aviation.
For example, the 2017 Spring Festival holiday, the national passenger shipments 4.
0.8 billion person-times, only an increase of 2.
1%. For the first time during the 2018 Spring Festival, the number of passenger shipments across the country showed a negative growth.
The Spring Festival holiday in 2019 has come, everyone can wait and see, after all, the data of the transportation department is more credible.
According to The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017 released by the World Economic Forum, the global tourism industry revenue now accounts for 10% of global GDP, but China ‘s domestic tourism industry revenue accounts for only 5% of GDP.5%, indicating that China ‘s tourism industry is not as developed as compared to the size of the Chinese economy, which may be related to the low level of Chinese residents ‘income. For example, China ‘s per capita national income (GNI) ranked 69th in the world in 2017.During the same period, the United States was China’s 6.
The 2017 Tourism Competitiveness Report has a total of 387 pages. In the discussion of China’s tourism industry, it is pointed out that China’s tourism industry employs 22.49 million people, accounting for the total number of Chinese employees 2.
9%, the added value created is 224 billion US dollars, and the proportion of GDP is 2.
1%, less than half of the data published by the National Bureau of Statistics.
注：上图旅游业增加值（T&T industry GDP）中国$224B，为2240亿美元缩写 中国旅游业增加值虽然不足美国的一半，但已经在全球排名第二了；与中国形成鲜明对照的是，U.S. tourism added value as a percentage of GDP is only 2.
7%, only 0 higher than China
According to the structure of the three industries, the U.S. service industry accounts for 80%, while China has only 52%. From the perspective of per capita national income of residents, the United States is China’s 6.
Therefore, regardless of per capita income or industrial structure, the proportion of China’s added value of tourism to GDP is unlikely to exceed that of the United States. Therefore, the 2017 value-added data of tourism released by the National Bureau of Statistics, even if it includes tourism relatedIndustry value-added data (only 7.
8%), still suspected of overestimation.
At the same time, the World Economic Forum’s Tourism Competitiveness Report 2017 shows that the five countries with the highest dependence on tourism in the world: Malta, Croatia, Thailand, Jamaica, and Iceland.No more than 15.
1%, the lowest is 8.
Even if Hong Kong, China ‘s largest overseas tourist destination, has long been the first destination for outbound travel, the added value of its tourism industry accounts for only 8% of GDP.
Therefore, the China Tourism Research Institute announced that “the added value of tourism accounts for 11.
04% “, which belongs to” countries and regions that are highly dependent on tourism “, but the tourism industry income is only half of the global average, indicating that its credibility is not high.
To sum up, it is undoubtedly the right choice to expand domestic demand, increase green GDP, and promote economic transformation through the development of tourism. In recent years, governments around the world have indeed worked hard to build distinctive towns, tap and develop local history and culture.And tourism resources to promote the growth of local tourism income, but the development of tourism is closely related to the growth of residents ‘disposable income. With the increase of residents’ income level, the development of tourism will naturally increase.
However, in the context of the decline in residents’ income growth, it is not realistic to achieve rapid growth in tourism income.
Furthermore, nowadays, all regions are rushing to develop tourism resources, which may also cause a “supply oversupply” of the tourism industry, leading to a decline in fiscal expenditure performance and waste of resources.
Because it is difficult to count the number of tourists and income, it is bound to appear false tourism performance of “high growth” and “outstanding performance” in the tourism industry.
In short, it is the last word to find ways to increase the level of income and social security and welfare of residents, and it is the prerequisite for all prosperity to be sustained.
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