Tianyi Shangjia (688033): China’s leading train brake maker manufacturer high-speed rail construction accelerates the company’s continuous growth
A domestic supplier of brake pads for trains, focusing on powder metallurgy pads for high-speed rail EMUs.
The company is a leading domestic supplier of powder metallurgical brake pads for high-speed rail EMUs. In 2018, the powder metallurgical brake pad revenue accounted for 99%.
The actual controller of the company, Wu Peifang, and his concerted parties hold the company35.
68% equity (before issuance).
The company realized revenue in 2016-20184.
8.6 billion, 5.
07 billion, 5.
580,000 yuan, net profit attributable to mothers1.
9.5 billion, 2.
2.2 billion, 2.
The demand for renewal maintains a broad market size, and the market competition pattern is orderly and stable.
A large amount of thermal energy and thermal shock will be generated when the train brakes, which will accelerate the wear and aging of the brake pads. Therefore, the brake pads of the train are consumables, and the brake pads need to be updated for a long time.
With the rapid development of China’s high-speed rail motor vehicle sector, the stock of high-speed trains in China has continued to increase, bringing a broad market space for brake pads.
At the same time, high-speed rail EMU brake pad suppliers are relatively concentrated, the cooperation relationship is relatively orderly, the changes are small, and the competition pattern is stable.
The company has the most CRCC certificates in the industry and is the core supplier of Fuxing.
The “Railway Product Certification Certificate” is an indispensable qualification certificate for the sales of related products in the Chinese railway market. The certification certificate is relatively difficult to obtain. The company holds 6 CRCC EMU brake certificate certificates and the certificates cover the most internal models.
The powder metallurgical brake TS588A / 32 produced by the company has a CRCC formal certification certificate, and has passed the two models of “Fuxing” CR400AF and CR400BF with a speed of 350 kilometers per hour. It is the first company in China to obtain the CRCC of “Fuxing”Certified company.
Profit forecast and estimation: China’s railway train equipment continues to increase, and the rail transit equipment industry continues to improve. The company has the dual advantages of technology and customers, and will continue to grow in the future.
US $ 2.5 billion, we use the PE method to estimate the company, giving the company 30-35 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a market value of 92 in 2019.
920,000 yuan, corresponding to a reasonable interval of the total share capital after the issue of 20.
New stock premium effect: According to historical data statistics, new stocks have obvious premium characteristics 30 days before listing. According to statistics from comparable machinery and equipment industries, the premium rate is -3% -10%, so the possible price range during the company’s listing is 20.
Risk Warning: Failure of railway product certification, intensified market competition, security accidents, etc.
Special Note: The pricing of the new stocks predicted in this report is not the price performance on the first day of listing, and in addition, the existing market environment is basically the same as the reasonable price range.