Golden River Bio (002688) Company Comments: 19-year performance slightly exceeds expectations 20 years or usher in Davis double-click

Golden River Bio (002688) Company Comments: 19-year performance slightly exceeds expectations 20 years or usher in Davis double-click
Event: The company released a performance report, and the company achieved operating income in 201917.82 ppm, an increase of 9 in ten years.42%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.83 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.05%. Steady growth in overseas markets drove overall performance recovery. From a single quarter perspective, the company achieved revenue in the fourth quarter.300 million, an annual increase of about 3%, and a net profit of 0.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%.In 2019, the downstream pig breeding industry was severely affected by the non-epidemic epidemic situation, and the pig inventory was transitioned to a historical low, which affected the demand for the company’s products and led to a decrease in domestic revenue of chlortetracycline and animal vaccines.However, after experiencing the limit resistance policy in the US market, the company realized the growth of chlortetracycline products in the US market by adjusting the product structure in a timely manner and changing the marketing model, coupled with the continuous development of environmental protection and other businesses.Overall performance has continued to grow. The demand for chlortetracycline is expected to pick up. The company welcomes a rise in volume and price. Chlortetracycline is cheap and effective, and it is the most commonly used veterinary antibiotic.Because downstream users have high demand elasticity and low sensitivity to chlortetracycline prices, companies can transfer part of the cost pressure to the downstream through price increases, and slender their own profit margins.Since February 成都桑拿网 this year, the company’s domestic chlortetracycline products have increased by 10%.Considering the change in use and referring to the average head usage in the United States, we estimate that the potential amount of chlortetracycline to be injected in advance will be about 15, and the domestic sales in 2018 will be about 40,000 tons, which has huge potential space.In the future, through the continuous replenishment of large-scale factories, the concentration of breeding will increase, the use of chlortetracycline will gradually open, and the tight supply side will make use of chlortetracycline to continue to increase the price. The layout of animal vaccines for many years is expected to face a situation of turning losses into profits. The company will acquire Hangzhou Youben through mergers and acquisitions, and the American Protec company quickly entered the veterinary vaccine industry, becoming a rising star in the industry.Relying on two vaccine business platforms at home and abroad, and making full use of the international advanced technology development company vaccines, the company has formed a series of technology research and development capabilities and product name resources. The company actively increases research investment and technological innovation in vaccine business, and cooperates with multiple scientific research institutes and large colleges to transform the production process and improve the company’s product quality.With the company’s increasing investment in veterinary vaccine research, the listing of new vaccines in the future will add new business growth points for the company.With the epidemic situation stabilizing and the continuous recovery of downstream fills, the company’s vaccine business tried to bottom out. Earnings forecast and investment advice We slightly adjust the company’s performance and expect to return to net profit for the mother in 19/20/211.83/2.80/3.7.5 billion (previous value was 1.74/2.80/3.7.5 billion), 12.05% / 52.51% / 34.07%, EPS are 0.29/0.44/0.59 yuan.We believe that the demand of the chlortetracycline industry is relatively rigid, the competition pattern is good, and the company’s leader is stable, with pricing power. At the same time, the company actively promotes the development of vaccine and environmental protection business, continuously enhances competitiveness, and achieves steady growth in performance.Based on this, we give 30 times PE for 20 years with a target price of 13.2 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: the risk of policy changes; the risk of epidemics; the risk of new product expansion being less than expected